According to Bridgewater Associates’ most recently filed 13-F, 51% of their portfolio is concentrated in ETF’s that are tailored towards international exposure..
Just to play devils advocate, in the 1980’s, Dalio predicted that there would be a massive banking crisis. He was all over television, and even testified in front of congress, but his prediction turned out to be 100% incorrect, and the market ended up going on the greatest bull run since the roaring 20’s.
This was almost 50 years ago, though, and today Bridgewater Associates is the most respected hedge fund in the world, so it is hard to dismiss anything he says.
The biggest obstacle he faces is time. Everybody knows Asia is the future, but the question is when? 5 years? 10? What kind of losses would you be holding over that time frame? How many customers would you lose? In the world of trading, a most popular catch phrase is, “go with the trend”, and clearly the trend is still up for U.S markets.
But whether he is right or wrong may not be that important. When a man of his caliber makes a statement like this, it helps broaden everybody’s perspective. Dalio is one of the most successful men of our time, and his investment strategy says a lot about the state of U.S markets.
It’s been almost 1 year since we broke the record for the longest bull run in history, and interest rates have also been set at the lowest level in world history for a full decade now, so this certainly can’t go on forever.